IDC warns of major PC market downturn due to memory crunch

The demand building out AI infrastructure has placed on PC component makers has already led to the death of one consumer-facing RAM brand, but a new report from the International Data Corporation (IDC) suggests it could have an even worse impact on the PC industry at large. In its worst-case-scenario model, the IDC predicts PC shipments could shrink by up to 8.9 percent in 2026 because of the high cost of memory.

"Instead of expanding conventional DRAM and NAND used in smartphones, PCs and other consumer electronics, major memory makers have shifted production toward memory used in AI data centers, such as high-bandwidth (HBM) and high-capacity DDR5," IDC writes. That's continued to drive up the price of the RAM that is available for PC makers, which has naturally led to them to raise the price of their own products to stay above water. For example, modular PC maker Framework has already had to raise prices on some of its laptops and parts, and says "further cost and price increases are highly likely over the next months." The IDC says prices could rise by 6 to 8 percent in 2026 if its most pessimistic scenario comes true.

The timing of this RAM crunch is particularly ironic because selling "AI PCs" — computers with neural processing units that can run AI models locally — were supposed to be one of the things pulling the PC industry out of its post-pandemic slump. Instead, those computers' larger RAM needs leave them more vulnerable to the effects of the AI industry itself. Computers aren't the only electronics impacted, either. The IDC says the average selling price of a smartphone could grow by 6 to 8 percent in its most pessimistic scenario, and smartphone shipments could shrink by as much as 5.2 percent. 

Companies like Apple and Samsung, with cash to spare and long-term supply agreements, could weather these higher RAM prices and keep things consistent for a year or two, according to the IDC. For everyone else, though, the near-term is looking much more expensive, and by necessity, much less adventurous.

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